Population, Housing and Employment Projections for the Frontenacs
Population, Housing and Employment Projections for the Frontenacs
The County of Frontenac has released population, housing, and employment projections for the future of the County and Townships from 2011 to 2036. The projections were undertaken by Watson & Associates Economists Limited, one of Canada’s leading economic consulting firms, and were endorsed by County Council at its April 20th, 2011 meeting Staff Report. Watson will also be providing the County with a model that can be used to create future projections and adjust to future changes in housing demand and demographics.
The report, Population, Housing and Employment Projections for the Frontenacs is available to download in PDF format here.
The following is a summary of key findings and projections from the Watson report:
Steady Growth
The permanent population base of the County is forecasted to steadily increase over the next 25 years from 28,100 in 2011 to 37,700 in 2036. High-growth (40,000) and low-growth (34,400) scenarios were also explored.
Aging Population
The County’s population is aging slightly more rapidly than the Province as a whole. From 2011 to 2036, the percentage of the County population aged 55+ will increase from 30% to 34%. This trend poses implications regarding both seniors’ housing and affordable housing in Frontenac County.
Declining Household Size
The rate of permanent population growth for Frontenac County is forecasted to gradually decline over the next 25 years, largely due to the aging of the population. This aging trend will result in a reduction in the average number of persons per housing unit (PPU) which, in turn, will require a modest level of housing growth in each of the County’s settlement areas even to maintain stable population levels.
Majority of Growth in the South
70% of the projected growth of permanent population in the County is anticipated to occur within the Township of South Frontenac due to its proximity to Kingston and the employment opportunities available.
Rural Development
The majority of population growth is forecast to be in the County’s rural areas, similar to current and historical trends.
Continued Demand for Cottages
Seasonal population is a significant portion of the County’s population base, with 50% of the base population and 40% of all households. The Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), the Greater Ottawa Region and the City of Kingston will continue to be a major source of demand for seasonal population growth in the Frontenacs. The total permanent and seasonal population in the Frontenacs will reach 66,200 persons by 2036, an increase of 9,400 from 2011.
Employment
The County’s employment base is forecasted to increase steadily from approximately 3,800 in 2006 to 5,300 in 2036. This will be primarily driven by growth in retail and tourism services to serve the growing population, as well as some growth in the industrial and institutional sectors. The number of County residents who work from home is also expected to steadily increase as the economy continues to transition to a service sector and knowledge-based economy, along with improvements to telecommunications.
Key Factors for Growth
Future growth in the County is dependent on the following key factors: the growth and competitiveness of the regional export-based Greater Kingston Area economy; the area’s attractiveness to the 55+ age group as a destination for retirement/semiretirement; and market demand for seasonal housing largely from residents within the Greater Kingston Area, the GGH and the Greater Ottawa Area.
For more information please contact Peter Young, Community Planner, at 613-548-9400 ext 359 or pyoung@frontenaccounty.ca
